Kumba production and sales report for the fourth quarter, and trading statement, for the year ended 31 December 2025
05 February, 2026
Production and sales report for the fourth quarter and year ended 31 December 2025
Kumba's Chief Executive, Mpumi Zikalala, said: “Our solid performance in 2025 reflects the collective effort of our people and the resilience of our operations. As we strengthen the fundamentals of our business, we recognise the need to further improve asset reliability and enhance cost efficiency, while progressing the Ultra-High Dense Media Separation (UHDMS) project, a key enabler of long-term value creation. Our collaboration with Transnet, through the Ore Users’ Forum, combined with disciplined execution across the value chain, ensured delivery within the Company’s full year sales guidance and allowed us to benefit from a stable iron ore price environment. As we look ahead, we will continue to focus on our strategic priorities of safety, operational excellence and unlocking sustainable value for our stakeholders.”
Overview of Q4 2025 and the full year 2025
- Fatality free record now exceeds nine years at Sishen and two years at Kolomela.
- Production increased by 10% to 8.6 Mt in Q4 2025 (Q4 2024: 7.8 Mt), with full year output up by 1% to 36.1 Mt.
- Sales softened to 8.7 Mt in Q4 2025 (Q4 2024: 9.1 Mt), while increasing by 2% to 37.0 Mt for the year.
- Total finished stock remained unchanged at 7.5 Mt in Q4 2025 with 5.7 Mt on-mine and 1.8 Mt at port (Q4 2024: 7.4 Mt; 6.9 Mt on-mine; 0.5 Mt at port).
- Kumba achieved an average realised free-on-board (FOB) export iron ore price of US$95 per wet metric tonne (wmt) (2024: US$92/wmt), outperforming the iron ore FOB benchmark price of US$85/wmt (2024: US$89/wmt) by 12%.
|
% change |
% change |
% change |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 | vs | vs | Full year | Full year | vs | |
| 000 tonnes | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2024 | Q4 | Q3 | 2025 | 2024 | 2024 |
| Waste mining | 41,088 | 44,175 | 39,817 | 40,485 | 27,835 | 48 | (7) | 165,565 | 155,706 | 6 |
| Production | 8,590 | 9,247 | 9,257 | 8,990 | 7,826 | 10 | (7) | 36,084 | 35,731 | 1 |
| Sales | 8,705 | 9,625 | 9,701 | 9,007 | 9,135 | (5) | (10) | 37,038 | 36,251 | 2 |
| Total waste mining | 41,088 | 44,175 | 39,817 | 40,485 | 27,835 | 48 | (7) | 165,565 | 155,706 | 6 |
| Sishen | 32,520 | 36,744 | 33,341 | 34,631 | 25,100 | 30 | (11) | 137,236 | 133,940 | 2 |
| Kolomela | 8,568 | 7,431 | 6,476 | 5,854 | 2,735 | 213 | 15 | 28,329 | 21,766 | 30 |
| Total production | 8,590 | 9,247 | 9,257 | 8,990 | 7,826 | 10 | (7) | 36,084 | 35,731 | 1 |
| Sishen | 6,560 | 6,347 | 6,427 | 5,955 | 5,687 | 15 | 3 | 25,289 | 25,661 | (1) |
| Kolomela | 2,030 | 2,900 | 2,830 | 3,035 | 2,139 | (5) | (30) | 10,795 | 10,070 | 7 |
| Total sales | 8,705 | 9,625 | 9,701 | 9,007 | 9,135 | (5) | (10) | 37,038 | 36,251 | 2 |
| Lump | 5,917 | 6,391 | 6,418 | 6,127 | 6,071 | (3) | (7) | 24,853 | 23,807 | 4 |
| Fines | 2,788 | 3,234 | 3,283 | 2,880 | 3,064 | (9) | (14) | 12,185 | 12,444 | (2) |
Safety performance
We have been fatality-free at Sishen for more than nine years and two years at Kolomela and we are totally committed to safe production. With a total recordable injury frequency rate of 0.95 for 2025, we continue to focus on preventing harm by working closely with our service partners to strengthen fatal risk management and to embed a simplified, disciplined, safe work culture across our operations.
Mining and production
Waste mining increased by 48% to 41.1 Mt (Q4 2024: 27.8 Mt), driven by a strong performance at both operations. Sishen increased by 30% to 32.5 Mt (Q4 2024: 25.1 Mt) and Kolomela delivered more than a three-fold increase to 8.6 Mt (Q4 2024: 2.7 Mt), This reflects the impact of the business reconfiguration in the comparative Q4 2024 period, as well as the planned ramp-up in waste mining. For the full year 2025, waste mining increased by 6% to 165.6 Mt (2024: 155.7 Mt). Volumes were at the lower end of the full year 2025 guidance of 166 - 182 Mt, largely due to asset reliability challenges.
Total production increased by 10% to 8.6 Mt (Q4 2024: 7.8 Mt), underpinned by a 15% uplift in Sishen's production to 6.6 Mt (Q4 2024: 5.7 Mt), while Kolomela's output decreased by 5% to 2.0 Mt (Q4 2024: 2.1 Mt). Kolomela’s production was reduced as planned to optimise plant feedstock levels and sustain a balanced value chain.
For the full year 2025, production increased by 1% to 36.1 Mt (2024: 35.7 Mt). Sishen’s output was marginally down by 1% to 25.3 Mt (2024: 25.7 Mt) due to a planned drawdown of on-mine stockpiles in the first quarter and plant maintenance interventions to facilitate the implementation of the UHDMS project. This was offset by a 7% increase in Kolomela’s production to 10.8 Mt (2024: 10.1 Mt), in line with our flexible approach to production.
Logistics, sales and the market environment
Ore railed to Saldanha Bay port increased by 2% to 8.6 Mt (Q4 2024: 8.4 Mt) in Q4 2025, despite two derailments following the ten day annual rail and port maintenance shutdown in October. Shipments were constrained by 26 days of single loading due to the planned refurbishment of a stacker reclaimer, as well as high wind speeds at the port. As a result, sales in Q4 2025 decreased by 5% to 8.7 Mt (Q4 2024: 9.1 Mt). Notwithstanding this, sales for the full year 2025 increased by 2% to 37.0 Mt (2024: 36.3 Mt), supported by improved operational stability across the value chain.
Total finished stock ended the year flat at 7.5 Mt with 5.7 Mt (Q4 2024: 6.9 Mt) of on-mine stock and more optimal port stock levels of 1.8 Mt (Q4 2024: 0.5 Mt).
Iron ore market prices were underpinned by resilient Chinese pig iron production, on the back of strong export demand and stable supply from the major iron ore producers. Lump premium averaged US$0.14/dmtu for the year, despite pressure from high inventory levels and weak steel mill margins. Kumba achieved an average realised FOB export price of US$95/wmt, outperforming the benchmark FOB iron ore price of US$85/wmt by12% for the year.
Guidance
Kumba’s guidance is subject to Transnet's logistics performance. Production guidance for 2026 is unchanged at 31– 33 Mt and will be lower than 2025 reflecting the main tie-in of the UHDMS project, which is planned in the second half of 2026. Sales guidance for 2026 of between 35 - 37 Mt, includes the planned drawdown of finished stock. Production guidance for 2027 and 2028 are at 35 – 37 Mt.
Trading statement for the year ended 31 December 2025
Kumba is finalising its financial results for the year ended 31 December 2025 (the period). Further information will be provided in the 2025 annual results, which will be released on the Stock Exchange News Service (SENS) on 19 February 2026.
In accordance with paragraph 3.4(b) of the JSE Limited Listings Requirements, shareholders are advised that headline earnings for the period are expected to be between R13,856 million and R15,330 million. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the period are expected to be between R43.22 and R47.81, an increase of between 11% and 23% from the year ended 31 December 2024 (comparative period, announced on SENS on 18 February 2025). The increase in earnings relative to the comparative period is largely attributable to the higher average realised FOB export ore price, a 2% increase in sales volumes and penalty income from Transnet. The increase was partly offset by the impact of a stronger ZAR/US$ exchange rate. Reported headline earnings and HEPS for the comparative period were R12,495 million and R38.94, respectively.
Basic earnings for the period are expected to be between R13,734 million and R15,195 million. Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the period are expected to be between R42.83 and R47.39, reflecting a change ranging from a decrease of 7% to an increase of 3% from the comparative period. Reported basic earnings and EPS for the comparative period include the reversal of an impairment on the asset value of the Kolomela cash generating unit that was recognised in 2022. The impairment reversal was due to a revision in the forecast production volume profile of Kolomela as part of the Company's business reconfiguration plan to optimise value. Reported basic earnings and EPS for the comparative period (announced on SENS on 18 February 2025) were R14,699 million and R45.81 respectively.
Volumes excluding waste mining, and on-mine unit costs, are reported as wet metric tonnes (wmt). Product is shipped with ~1.5% moisture. Production and sales volumes for the period are 100% of Sishen Iron Ore Company Proprietary Limited (SIOC), and attributable to shareholders of Kumba and the non-controlling interests in SIOC.
This announcement contains forward-looking statements which are based on the Company’s current beliefs and expectations about future events. The operational and financial information contained in this announcement have not been reviewed and reported on by the Company’s external auditors and is the responsibility of the board of directors of Kumba.
Johannesburg
5 February 2026
Sponsor
RAND MERCHANT BANK (A division of FirstRand Bank Limited)
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